NBA Betting: What Are the Odds a No. 1 Seed Doesn’t Win It All?

While parity may reign supreme in sports like baseball, football, soccer, and hockey, basketball is a bit different. More often than not, chalk has a way of holding in the National Basketball Association. For whatever reason, the NBA’s playoff system typically assures the better team advancing in a series.

While that may take some of the drama out of certain matchups, favorites are far from infallible. Although playoff upsets may happen more frequently in other sports, we have still seen plenty of heavy favorites in the NBA lose over the years. One of the most famous upsets in league history happened somewhat recently when the Cleveland Cavaliers shockingly dethroned the Golden State Warriors in the NBA Finals.

While top seeds in both conferences are typically tabbed as the odds-on favorites to make it to the finals, sometimes lesser teams get hot at the right time and exceed expectations. Does being a No. 1 seed offer a safer passage to the finals? Let’s take a deeper look.

Massive Upsets

As mentioned in the open, I’ve seen a number of teams fall short of their goals in epic fashion. While most No. 1 seeds at least make it past the first 안전 토토사이트 추천   round of the playoffs, there is the occasional slip-up in round 1. A total of five teams have lost in the first round of the playoffs as a No. 1 seed.

The first instance occurred in 1994, when the No. 8 seed Denver Nuggets toppled the top-seeded Seattle Supersonics in five games. Back then, though, the first round of the NBA playoffs was a best-of-five format, which naturally lends itself to more upsets. The superior team is likely to establish itself over the course of the standard best-of-seven format, which is the current format.

The New York Knicks also triumphed in a five-game series over the top-seeded Miami Heat in 1999. That Knicks team has the distinction of still being the only No. 8 seed to ever make it all the way to the finals. New York lost in the championship round that year to the San Antonio Spurs.

Three teams have won as a No. 8 seed in the seven-game format. They are the Golden State Warriors (2007), Memphis Grizzlies (2011) and Philadelphia 76ers (2012). Each of those teams was subsequently defeated in the next round.

All of this is to say that the top seed in either conference losing in the first round is incredibly rare. In the last twenty years, just four No. 8 seeds have advanced beyond the first round out of the forty 1-vs.-8 matchups.

So, your No. 1 seed is typically a very safe bet through the first round of the postseason.

How Often Do Top Seeds Make the Finals?

With the way the NBA has evolved, playoff seeding seems to have become less and less important. Rather than going all-out during the regular season in order to attain the best record possible, more and more teams are willing to sacrifice regular season games in the interest of keeping players healthy. There are still exceptions, but most teams are not playing for regular season glory. True greatness is determined by playoff success.

As a result, the best teams are not always necessarily going to finish the regular season as a top seed. In 2017, for example, the Cleveland Cavaliers managed to reach the finals as a No. 2 seed after knocking of the No. 1-ranked Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. Despite entering the series with home court advantage, most odds would have told you that the Celtics were still underdogs to beat LeBron James and the Cavaliers.

Since the 1996-97 season, there have been six NBA Finals without a team seeded No. 1 in its conference. Meanwhile, there have been just four finals matchups during that stretch featuring a pair of No. 1 seeds. So, in that twenty-year sample, at least one top-seeded team has appeared in the finals fourteen times, or seventy percent of the time.

Betting on a No. 1 seed to make it to the finals is a pretty strong bet. However, how often does the top seed actually win it all once they get there? Using that same twenty-year sample, a No. 1 seed has gone on to win the title twelve times. Top seeds have won every NBA championship dating back to 2013. The most recent team seeded No. 2 or lower to win the title was the 2012 Miami Heat.

What about the teams that finish with the best overall record in the league, regardless of conference? Since the 1996-97 season, the team that finishes with the best regular season record has won ten times, or fifty percent of the time.

Top Seeds in Other Sports

So, history tells us that top seeds have historically fared exceptionally well in the playoffs and the finals. The track record isn’t spotless, of course, and obviously no top seed is guaranteed a trip to the championship round. More often than not, the finals features at least one team that did not achieve the top seed in its respective conference.

Still, picking winners in the NBA remains easier than in other sports. Since the Wild Card was introduced to Major League Baseball in 1995, eleven teams that finished the season with the best record have advanced to the World Series.  토토사이트   However, those overall top seeds to appear in the World Series have won it just five of the eleven times. One of those teams, the 2013 St. Louis Cardinals, lost to the Boston Red Sox in a year in which the teams tied for the best regular season record at 97-65.

If we go back to 1997, just five top seeds have won the Super Bowl. The 2016 New England Patriots, 2015 Denver Broncos, 2014 Patriots, 2003 Patriots, and 1998 Broncos are the only teams to accomplish the feat. The team with the best record in the NFL has appeared in ten Super Bowls during that span, as well.

Betting on a No. 1 NBA seed to make the finals is no sure thing, but the evidence suggests that there will likely be at least one representative on an annual basis.